Monday, 12 May 2008

Q and A:s from China and Bangladesh at Globe Forum





I could not have been put in a better spot, or more difficult. On a panel during Globe Forum I was sitting beside Dipal Barua from Grameen Shakti and had Edward Law from CCTVs Bizchina as a moderator asking questions.

This is a setting that I hope we will see more of in different settings. Having world leading people from emerging economies like Dipal, makes it clear that a lot of initiatives in OECD that are called “green” are nothing more than marginal end-of-pipe solutions without any global relevance. The “Grameen approach”, both in finance and for energy solutions, is really amazing and I hope to explore ways we can collaborate to expand this in China and India.

Then with questions and reflections for China helps to put things in perspective and avoid the usual marginal thinking that usually dominates events in OECD.


Congratulation to the organizers at Globe Forum for this session, this challenge I want to get over and over again. I also hope that the politicians and business leaders will be in similar situations often enough for them to integrate concern for the emerging economies and have a global perspective in everything they do.

The next generation of conferences - inspired by Globe Forum

Participated in parts of Globe Forum 2008 with the theme: "Business Innovation for Sustainable Growth", Wednesday and Thursday. Like most conferences with a focus on global challenges there were quite a few people there with good ideas. The question I have if we will see a new generation of gatherings where people identify opportunities and challenges already before the conferences, pledge to work on certain areas before. Use the conference to explore synergies and revise the pledges. The conference would then become a launching platform for real action.

This would obviously require conferences to always have follow-up meetings where the results are presented, new pledges are made if necessary, etc. Instead of a single event, that is a break from the everyday life, this could create a process where processes are created that help people to deliver results they never could deliver on their own.

Will look for an opportunity to try to implement this.

Friday, 9 May 2008

The world is changing - or is it our perspective

What country is the most "green"? One of the more interesting was just published by National Geographic. The way the study was structured might make it an indicator of the world of tomorrow.

From the webpage "Greendex":


"Unlike other measures that rank countries according to the environmental performance of their governments, companies and other factors, the Greendex is the first to rank the performance of individual consumers, rather than countries as a whole.

Consumption as measured by the Greendex is determined both by the choices consumers actively make—such as repairing rather than replacing items, using cold water to wash laundry, choosing green products rather than environmentally unfriendly ones—and choices that are controlled more by their circumstances, such as the climate they live in or the availability of green products or public transport. The initiative considered both these factors, with 60 percent of the 65-variable index based on choice or discretionary behavior."


The ranking


1. Brazil and India
2. China
3. Mexico
4. Hungary
5. Russia
6. United Kingdom
7. Australia and Germany
8. Spain
9. Japan
10. France
11. Canada
12. United States

Wednesday, 30 April 2008

Where the future is born – the 12th five year plan/program for China

Poor Li Nan had to fight red tape and spend half of the morning to get a visa to Switzerland , but after that adventure we visited NDRC (Institute of Economic Research and Institute of Social Development) to discuss with the experts that will work on the report we are doing to support our project that focus on the 12th five year plan. For the world to better understand the opportunities and make sure we support targets that are crucial for a peaceful development requires us to think ahead, in this case only a few years ahead. Still maybe one of the most crucial times of our time when it comes to economic development of the world and global resource consumption.

Will post our folder about the project as soon as it is ready, probably in June.

Tuesday, 29 April 2008

In love with a stone that can save the world

I spent a good part of the afternoon at the Communication University of China (CUC) with Liu Wanying where we met the teams that have produced the top nine contributions in the “short movie” competition that GlobalFOCUS/WWF here in China has arranged with the aim to provide visions from the future/China related to the challenges that climate change/resource consumption on western levels pose. It is meant to be solution oriented, inspire action and provide a glimpse into how the next generation in China is approaching these issues.

Many of the outlines/sketches/drafts/ideas for the short movies are really good and I think that quite a few could become world class contributions. I just had to post a picture on one
contribution that I must admit that I fell in love with, it has personality and it is a new world that feels familiar. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for a fantastic story and that once this figure starts to move it will be even better.

China Mobile gearing up to deliver real CO2 reductions and Sweden as a margin of error

Had great meeting with China Mobile together with Li Nan where we discussed the structure and focus of our joint project that we just started about the role of ICT to reduce CO2 emissions. It is easy to feel that resources spent by most environmental organizations are less than optimal when it comes to result on invested work when you look at the potential and willingness to engage in a serious way. Our work will link to their new Green Action Plan and is part of our joint work with MOFCOM.

Looking at the targets of China Mobile and the opportunities it is easy to be impressed. 6,94 million tonnes of CO2 reductions until 2010 (7 million tonnes today but will grow fast due to expansion plans) from their own operations and a target to “utilize mobile tech to enable the whole society to improve resource efficiency”.

The fact that China Mobile has 369 339 000 customers make’s Sweden’s whole population close
to being within the margin of error, that is food for thought for anyone thinking about outreach and engaging individuals.

I really look forward to develop the detailed work plan.

Monday, 28 April 2008

China's role in Africa: A thought when worlds connect with IT

With Skype strange situations happens. Sitting in Beijing, in Jade Garden Hotel close to the forbidden city, where the increasing food prices are being discussed intensively and so are links to Africa for obvious reasons.

Then talking to Penny Davies who participates in an OECD meeting in Kigali about aid, who is living in Hôtel des Mille Collines, the hotel that became “famous” as the building in which more than a thousand people took refuge during the Rwandan Genocide of 1994.

Only 14 years ago… Beijing was a very different place then… The following was world news April 1994 from China:

"Beijing's first public showroom for imported cars opens this week, an important step in turning the car from a tool of privilege into an ordinary commodity."

Now oil, food and China top news, still few are discussing the links and the history that brought us here.

Saturday, 26 April 2008

World Future/Fossil Power Index 2008: -33

Introducing a “World Future/Fossil Power Index”

After reading Forbes an old idea springs to mind again. I would like to see a global “future/fossil power index” being calculated. This does not have to be very sophisticated to give a sense of direction. It would look at the companies with the world’s top revenues as this indicates where we put the money to provide the services we want (or think we want). It would also indicate the lobbying capacity of the "fossil industry" vs. the "future industry" that in many cases have good reasons to slow down a transition to a low carbon economy.

First outline for the “future/fossil power index” based on Forbes top 50 list over revenues/sales

+100 for companies providing services that are reasonable sustainable and have a track record of supporting low carbon legislation/initiatives (not very many on the top 50 list)

+50 for companies that are doing more good than harm through investments and/or lobbying

0 for companies that are neutral (either with a business that is not really pushing in any direction or a company that do as much good as bad)

-50 for companies that are starting to move in a more low carbon direction and/or doing some lobbying in support of a low carbon development. But where the majority of the business is still in a high carbon area and the majority of investments still go in a direction where they lock us into a structure that making reductions more difficult

-100 for companies that still investing in high carbon solutions and either blocking or in other ways trying to stop rules and regulations that support a low carbon future.

Looking at top 50 I get the following list (based on my knowledge on the companies and rather giving a good score than a bad, so in reality we might be a little worse off, but as the rhetoric is carbon friendly in most cases I think we can get a momentum as soon as the biggest obstacles are out of the way) :

2 Companies +100

2 Companies +50

17 Companies 0

17 Companies -50

11 Companies -100

This would result in a 2008 Future/Fossil Power index of: -33

So we still have a long way to go, and I hope to follow-up this next year. Hopefully with a much better score.

It’s the Climate stupid: Arriving to Beijing with Forbes 2008 Guide to the biggest companies in the world: 2

Looking at the lists in Forbes from a climate perspective is not the happiest reading. It is obvious that some serious strategic action is needed of we are to change direction.

Let’s look at the revenues and profit for the top sectors:

Winners Sales in billion dollars
Oil & Gas 3,761
Banking 3,439
Insurance 2,085
Consumer Durables 2,019
Retailing 1,549

Winners Profit in billion dollars
Banking 398
Oil & gas 386
Insurance 150
Minerals 143
Div. financials 135

These first are the sectors we put most of our money, the second those who without much problem could help us towards a sustainable future. The question is how they are reinvesting their revenues and what they are doing with the profit…

It’s the money stupid: Arriving to Beijing with Forbes 2008 Guide to the biggest companies in the world: 1

On the plane from Tokyo to Beijing I took the time to glance through Forbes “Global 2000” 2008 special issue.

The first thing that could my interest is that the power shift seems to go faster than most people expected. Obviously institutional structures make the shift visible in everyday life as these new comers do not operate in the same way (or in the same regions) as the old ones.


Winners Gain/Loss in companies 2004 vs. 2008
China 45 (60 if Hong Kong is included)
India 21
Brazil 19
Russia 17
Hong Kong 15

Losers Gain/Loss in companies 2004 vs. 2008
US -153
Japan -57
UK -23
Germany -6
Netherlands -5

Market Value

The symbolic shift on the top spot for market value when PetroChina was listed is something that few have missed. The big ExxonMobile on number two “only” has a market value of US$ 465,506 million compared to PetroChina with US$ 546,138 million… a 15% margin or US$ 80,632 million, more than pocket money… Something that I have not seen discussed as much is China Mobile’s 4th position, with only General Electric between it and the two oil companies. With 8,285 in profits they rank 44th on the Global 2000 list over profits. I look forward to my meeting with them this coming week. (They replied to the survey WWF and Gartner did together and provided some very interesting answers making them a company to look out for with regards to leadership in the sustainability field).

Friday, 25 April 2008

Arne Forstenberg: Outstanding leader for the future

A good day yesterday when Arne Forstenberg was awarded “outstanding leader for the future” by JCI Sweden. Good luck to Arne and maybe his trip to India can be linked to the World Economic Forum meeting that also will take place in India in November.

Take it careful on the bike Arne

Japan’s Government takes the global lead in low carbon ICT

Just attended a meeting in Tokyo where the World Economic Forum was partnering with the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications to convene a meeting of its IT and Telecoms Strategic & Government Affairs community in Tokyo on Wed 23rd and Thu 24th April. The meeting brought together senior executives from the IT and Telecoms industries and the Japanese Government.

The greatest news was that the government in Japan has taken a global lead and produced a report that, using very conservative estimations, show that Japan can reduce 38 million tonnes CO2. (68 million in savings minus 30 million from the use of ICT). This put Japan at the lead at the exact right time. As Japan will host the G8 summit this summer there is chance that the role of ICT could become part of the international climate agenda. If ICT companies want they could take the lead and show that they can be winners as the world moves toward a low carbon economy.